Falcons Soaring Surprise?

By: Michael A. Chase Jr.

09/01/2023

It is that time of year for my annual prediction for a surprise team in the NFL, and I have an interesting choice this year. The Atlanta Falcons are my pick for this year's surprise team in the NFL. With a lot of youth due to get a lot of playing time, mixed with some highly productive veterans the Falcons are poised to catch people off guard in the NFC. TUSV is here to analyze the reasons why the Atlanta Falcons are a good pick to be the 2023 season breakout NFL team.

The Falcons have missed the playoffs each of the last 5 seasons, finishing with 7 wins in four of the last five seasons. They're a team going into the 2023 season that will have a noticeably young offense, and what some will say is a mediocre defense. However, thanks to some quality draft picks and offseason additions to their roster, along with building on some intriguing strengths they displayed last season a breakout season is not farfetched.

The Falcons have a ton of youth across their offensive unit that will have to grow up on the fly this season. Starting with second-year QB Desmond Ridder the hope is he will take steps forward to establish himself as their solution at the position. The 23-year-old 3rd round pick started four games last season showcasing flashes of upside in each of his outings. His final numbers ended up being 708 passing yards, 64 rush yards, and two total touchdowns while completing 63.4% of his passes. His best performance came in Week 18 versus Tampa Bay when he threw for 224 yards and two touchdowns, posting a 108.2 quarterback rating. He does throw outside the numbers well and has athleticism that makes him a dual threat. Plus, his calm demeanor and leadership qualities will serve him well to emerge as a leader of this young team. Ridder does still have work to do to become a reliable starter and these areas will make or break his development and the success of Atlanta's offense. He will need to better his accuracy in the middle of the field, as well as, continuing to learn to read defenses. He showed growth this preseason as well and if he is solid with the promising weapons around him, he can lead the Falcons.

Speaking to the weapons around him, Ridder will not be alone in terms of the youth on offense. From running backs Bijan Robinson (Rookie) and Tyler Allgeier (2nd season), to wide receiver Drake London (22 years old), to tight ends Kyle Pitts (22 years old) and Jonnu Smith (28 years old) and promising playmakers populate at each position. Add in offensive lineman Chris Lindstrom (26 years old), Drew Dalman (24 years old), and Matthew Bergeron (23 years old) and this group has the chance to all grow together. For an offense that was 3rd in total rushing yards per game (159.9) and 4th in yards per carry at 4.9 to add a talent like Robinson to their backfield is impressive. Pairing him with Allgeier who rushed for 1,035 yards as a rookie last year their rushing attack should only become even more dynamic, plus Robinson's usefulness as a pass catcher will be in high usage. Getting a healthy year out of Kyle Pitts will be huge as well as he can be a matchup nightmare and a great security blanket for Ridder. Plus adding Jonnu Smith in free agency gives them a dynamic pair at the position. Then Drake London after posting 866 yards and 4 touchdowns as a rookie should be ready to fulfill the #1 receiver role. This group of skill-position players should provide a lot of versatility for coach Arthur Smith to take advantage of and make them a tough team to match up with. With speed, size, catch radius, and physicality this group complements one another well also.

On the defensive side, the Falcons ended up in the middle of the pack in many categories as they were good at times and suspect at other moments. But they made several off-season moves to add to this unit at multiple positions. To their front seven they added defensive linemen David Onyemata and Calais Campbell along with edge rusher Bud Dupree. Dupree (46.5 sacks in 103 games) will bring some pass rush off the edge, while Campbell (99 career sacks, 165 career tackles for loss) and Onyemata (23 sacks, 28 tackles for loss in career) will be good rotational pieces on the interior both as run stoppers and interior pass rushers. This trio should help draw some attention away from star lineman Grady Jarrett who should have more room to operate on the inside. They also made several additions to their secondary and now have a quietly solid collection of defensive backs. Their biggest move was signing safety Jessie Bates to add to their backend. As a safety he has had at least 3 interceptions and 7 passes defensed in 4 of his 5 seasons. Quality depth corners like Mike Hughes and Tre Flowers will provide support to their talented young tandem of A.J. Terrell and Jeff Okudah. Throw in draft picks Zach Harrison (d-line), Demarcco Hellams (safety), and Clark Phillips III (corner) and the Falcons' revamped defense has the chance to improve from the 22.7 points they allowed (23rd in the NFL) last year.

The Falcons will be relying on a lot of young and or new players to help them surpass their recent ceiling of 7 wins a season this year. They have a lot of talent on offense but the health and development of QB Desmond Ridder will be huge to that unit's success. On defense if players like Bates and Campbell can be the instant impact guys, they have been with their previous teams this unit will take a step forward. Plus, if they remain consistently elite at running the ball like they were last year they will be in every game. In a weakened NFC South, there is much opportunity to rise the standings and this could be that year for this under-the-radar Falcons team.