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The Orlando Magic:
Pieces on A Foggy Trajectory
By: Michael A. Chase Jr.
4/8/2020
I recently came up with three characterizations NBA franchises can fall under. These being Elite Contenders, Playoff Tweeners, and Draft Position Hopefuls. Of these three the one most would assume you want to stay away from is Draft Position Hopefuls. As this characterization puts you in a tier of teams that are outside the playoff picture and have some of the worst records in the league. Anticipating draft position more than regular season results for their team. The characterization that I would not want my team to be in is the Playoff Tweener. Meaning it is a team not good enough to compete for a Championship yet is stuck at the back end of the playoff picture. This is a team good enough to make the playoffs, but never improves enough to become a contender. A team I see that falls into this characterization is the Orlando Magic. As they are a team with talent that has an unclear trajectory. This article will look to present my reasoning for why the Orlando Magic fall into this category.
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The Orlando Magic before the NBA season halted held a record of 30-35, and the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Owning a 5.5 game lead over the 9th place Wizards, and seemingly playoff bound. The problem is they were likely on their way to a short playoff appearance with their 1st round opponent likely being the Milwaukee Bucks. Leaving one to think after what was looking to be two straight playoff years how much progress was this team making. After a 42-40 record and placing 7th in the East last season, this season saw significant regression. The Magic are a team that will be stuck in the Playoff Tweener category for the foreseeable future unless changes come.
One of the main reasons for the position they are in is a flawed roster. As they have talented players, but do not have a quality mix of talent to compete with the league’s elites. The key roster issue is the lack of talented guards and surplus of frontcourt players. This lack of positional balance on the roster is hindering the Magic from cultivating a core that can elevate this team. In their frontcourt the Magic have Johnathan Isaac, Khem Birch, Al-Farouq Aminu, Aaron Gordon, and James Ennis III as forwards. With Mo Bamba and Nikola Vucevic as their centers. Their backcourt consists of point guards D.J. Augustin, Markelle Fultz, and Michael Carter-Williams, with shooting guards Evan Fournier and Terrance Ross. These players represent the main rotation players on Orlando’s roster. There are several talented pieces, but the frontcourt talent drastically outnumbers the backcourt talent. As they have too many frontcourt players around the same age that all need significant minutes. While they have very few difference makers in the backcourt, all of which form a roster that is one of the worst offenses in the league.
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Specifically, in a league where three-point shooting and pace have become essential, the Magic’s roster lacks in both categories. The Magic sit 26th in the league in pace and shoot 34.1% from three ranking 25th in the league. The Magic are struggling to score most nights and these two stats along with their 108.0 offensive rating which ranks 24th in the league prove this. With players like Fultz, Carter-Williams, Vucevic and Gordon all 32% or worse from three. Along with players like Fournier, Ross, and Isaac all having inconsistent shooting seasons the Magic struggle to produce from three. Meaning despite being one of the best defensive teams in the league, ranking 9th in defensive rating at 109.0. While allowing the 4th fewest points at just 107.3 per game they struggle to score enough to complement their defense. For Orlando to improve their roster this offseason they must add some more offensive punch. Whether it is adding multiple guards who are deadly shooters. Moving one of their frontcourt pieces or finding impact talent in the draft. If Orlando can boost their offense to pair with its defensive structure, they could become a problem in the East.
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The fluxuation in season records also show why they fall into this Playoff Tweener category. As the last 5 seasons there has been an uneven trend in their win totals. After posting 35, 29, 25, 42, and 30 wins the last 5 seasons this gives them and average of 32 wins a year. In the Eastern Conference this average could fluxuate upward to 40 to 42 wins to get them a 7th or 8th seed. Or they could bottom out around the 25 to 30 wins and be a lottery team. Meaning they are stuck on a string of being a fringe playoff team or lottery team. This type of mediocrity the Magic are stuck in even dates back after the departure of star center Dwight Howard. The Magic need to find a way out of this cycle otherwise they will always see at best average results, and at worst bottom of the league results.
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Overall, the Magic have work to do to get this roster adjusted. While providing a clear direction for the franchise to follow. This offseason will be key in how the Magic look to hopefully build this roster up to a legit contender. A team that needs to cultivate the core players they identify. Then add and direct this group to get closer to the elite team they hope to become.