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Is Joe Ross Revitalized?
A Question Fans and The Nationals Hope Is True
By: Michael A. Chase Jr.
4/22/2021
Once again coming into the 2021 MLB year one of the biggest questions facing the Washington Nationals baseball club is rotation depth. As after their big three of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin, there are more mysteries than solutions in the rotation. Now with Strasburg on the IL, two poor starts in three outings by Corbin, and offseason signee Jon Lester still yet to return from his health concerns, depth is already being tested. Which means for the Nats to stay afloat in the early season other arms must step up. Which leads to Joe Ross the 27- year-old Right-Hander who is over three years removed from Tommy John surgery and sat out last season due to Covid. He is back this year and will be relied upon to help stabilize a weakened Nats rotation. Through his first 3 starts he has had two great ones and one awful one. So, the question becomes, which Joe Ross can Nats expect over the course of the season? Because with concerns with the rotation depth coming in, his performance is even more crucial than previously anticipated. This piece will look to analyze his first three starts, highlighting the positives and negatives of each outing. Then proceed to determine what is a reasonable expectation for Ross in terms of production from him to help stabilize a battered staff.
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To begin the analysis of his 3 starts, his first outing came against the Defending Champion Los Angeles Dodgers on April 9th. In this start he was excellent, going 5 scoreless innings with only two hits allowed. While striking out 5 batters and walking 2 receiving a no decision. The notable things about this start was how good his fastball command was throughout. Along with his velocity, as his fastball/sinker was and has been between 92-96 mph. He also threw 59 percent of his pitches for strikes, staying in attack mode on the mound and ahead of Dodgers hitters. The fact he was able to shut down such a potent Dodgers offense on only 67 pitches showcased great pitch efficiency as well.
In his second start on April 14th against the St. Louis Cardinals he was even better. As Ross went 6 innings, allowing only 4 hits, striking out 5 with one walk. He did a great job in this outing consistently working ahead in counts. Keeping Cardinals hitters on the defensive, throwing 70 percent of his pitches for strikes. While once again working efficiently, throwing only 89 pitches to get through his 6 frames. This was impressive as the Cardinals had scored 8 runs against Stephen Strasburg and 14 overall the night before. Forcing Strasburg to throw 88 pitches in just 4 innings. Ross overall showcased the best version of himself in his first two outings. Outpitching each Nationals starter, the first two times through the rotation.
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Things though went far different in his most recent start this past Monday in a rematch with the Cardinals. Ross lasted just 4.1 innings, throwing 85 pitches, and allowing 10 earned runs on 8 hits. The interesting thing about this outing is struck out 3 of the first 6 batters he faced. Then allowed at least one run each frame from the 2nd through 5th inning. The inconsistency of his command in the strike zone was noticeable, despite throwing 67 percent of his pitches for strikes. As unlike his first two outings the ball was constantly up in the zone with two much plate, and no late life on his fastball. The Cardinals also seemed to really see him well second time around. Hopefully, this is just a blip on the radar, and he can get back on track in his next start. Though this start is more indicative of the struggles he has had his last 3 years. With ERA’s of 5.01 in 2017, 5.06 in 2018 before the Tommy John surgery, and a 5.48 ERA in 2019. The question is, if Ross is more like the 3.64 and 3.34 ERA guy from his first two years, or the north of 5.00 ERA pitcher since? I think he is somewhere in the middle, if not more toward a 3.50 ERA type pitcher when he is right. Ross though must showcase this to stick around long term in the rotation.
Ross’s current numbers sit at a 1-1 record, with a 5.87 ERA in 3 starts. With 14 strikeouts to 6 walks and a 1.30 WHIP in 15.1 innings on the year. For Ross to succeed he has got to be efficient and get deep into games to save wear and tear on the bullpen. For him to do this he has to be consistent with fastball command, working down in the zone and ahead in counts as he did his first two starts. Along with the fact he needs to showcase his slider effectively to keep hitters honest. Basically, if Ross can go roughly 6 innings and give up 3 runs or less that is a winning effort from him each start. As the old saying goes, “he’s just gotta keep them in the game and give them a chance.” If Ross can do this than he will help solidify his spot in the rotation. Then once everyone is healthy on the staff, the Nats will have 4 reliable starters as they did during their 2019 World Series run.
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