My Breakout MLB Pick:

The Toronto Blue Jays

By: Michael A. Chase Jr.

3/22/2020

       The American League East is possibly the most difficult division in Major League Baseball. A division where the team’s who emerge from it usually can be major postseason factors. The Toronto Blue Jays finished 4th in this division with a 67-95 record in 2019. Optimism should be high for this franchise as they seem to be on the verge of winning results again. This Blue Jays team has a legitimate shot to be a factor in the AL East division, and the American League this coming season. As this team, because of its core group of young players is my pick for this MLB season’s breakout team. This piece will look to analyze the group of young studs that will contribute to a bounce back for Toronto. Detailing what each player can do to improve as a player and help the team.

            The young core that the Blue Jays have formed is quite enviable. This group includes Third Basemen Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Shortstop Bo Bichette, Second Basemen Cavan Biggio, Outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and First Basemen Rowdy Tellez. Add in catchers Danny Jansen and Reese McGurie, along with outfielder Teoscar Hernandez and the Jays have a strong core of players to form the foundation of their club. Each of these players bring different skills to the table that all can contribute to a turnaround season for Toronto. Which is why it is right to highlight each individually.

            Shortstop Bo Bichette:

-        This 22-year-old Shortstop made his big-league debut July 29th last season. He opened his career with an 11-game hit streak and batted .311 over 196 at-bats. He showed off good power also, as Bichette hit 11 homers and 18 doubles. Meaning 29 of his 61 hits went for extra bases, which is nearly half of this total. Bichette’s hitting tools that made him such a highly touted prospect were on full display as he carried his high minor league average right to the big show. His fielding was also solid as he displayed great range and a strong arm to the tune of a .959 fielding percentage. Bichette displayed great abilities on both sides of the ball and he should only get better going into his first full big-league season. For Bichette to help Toronto this season he must first continue to be the force he was at the top of the lineup last season. Raising his .358 on base percentage while stealing a few more bases to set up more RBI opportunities for his teammates. Plus, if his defense improves slightly, he will quickly establish himself as one of the best shortstops in baseball in short order.

            Second Basemen Cavan Biggio:

-        For Biggio this 24-year-old had a slower start to his career after debuting on May 24th. Biggio went hitless in 11 of his first 14 games before going a 5-game hit streak in mid-June. Biggio picked up his offense as his season progressed, going from a .146 average through his first 14 games to finishing at .234 in 100 games last season. Biggio like Bichette showcased great power as he hit 16 home runs, 17 doubles, and 2 triples. Totaling 35 extra base hits of his 83 overall hits, meaning 42% of his hits went for extra bases. This is impressive power for a second basemen and showcases his potential to hit 25 or more homers over a full season. Biggio does need to cut back on his strikeouts after totaling 123 in 354 at-bats, but that will come with further understanding of the strikezone. Biggio was great defensively as well, making just 5 errors in his 100 games. Doing this while playing not just his primary position, but also playing first base and both corner outfield spots. If Biggio cuts back on his strikeouts and can get off to a hotter start this 2020 season this will be huge. As he will form an excellent middle infield duo with Bichette and become a consistent power bat from the left side for Toronto.

            Third Basemen Vladimir Guerrero Jr.:

-        Being the youngest player of this core at just 21 years old Guerrero Jr. has the biggest upside of any of their young players. Guerrero hit .272 in his rookie season with 15 homers and 69 rbi’s in 464 at-bats. The power numbers were somewhat low, but as his approach further grows this number should rise. As he has the potential to average north of 30 home runs per season and drive in 100 runs. As for his fielding, he handled himself solidly at third base despite some concerns. Though he did commit 17 errors last season, he has the capability to handle the position. As he is agile enough and has the great arm strength to succeed at third base. Guerrero Jr. should slot into the middle of the lineup next year and be a major run producer for this group. This young man could easily hit 25 or more homers with 80 to 90 rbi’s and that is a conservative prediction. The ceiling is very high for this young corner infielder and he has all the tools to be a superstar. If Guerrero Jr. can up his power numbers and cut in half the number of errors, he made last season he will show the that he is a face of the franchise he is hyped to be.

            First Basemen/Designated Hitter Rowdy Tellez:

-        At 25 years old Tellez is a power hitting first base/designated hitter type that can slot right in the middle of an order. After appearing in 23 games in 2018 to get his first taste of the big leagues, Tellez saw 111 games of action in 2019 and performed well. He hit 21 homers and drove in 54 runs in 370 at-bats in his first extended chance as an everyday player. While the average was low at just .227, the power numbers are impressive, and he should increase this number with further opportunities. Tellez provides Toronto another power threat from the left side to help balance out their lineup as well. Tellez in the field is serviceable making just 2 errors in 57 games at first base last year but is more set to be a DH going forward. The fact he shows he can be a reliable defender adds to the layers of his game. Tellez with better plate discipline can cut down his strikeouts slightly from 116 and better his average. Plus, this means he can get his powerful bat on the ball more and add to his home run total for the coming year. Tellez if he can grow into a consistent middle of the order bat and be better versus left-handed pitching, will be a true asset to the Blue Jays lineup.

            Outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.:

-        Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the most intriguing player out of this core because of his breakout campaign last season. The 26-year-old Gurriel hit .277 with 20 home runs and 50 rbi’s in 314 at-bats for the Jays last season. This coming after hitting .281 with 11 homers and 35 rbi’s in 249 at-bats as a rookie in 2018. Gurriel was even close to making the all-star team last year because of his strong campaign. Showing the potential Gurriel has as an offensive weapon. Gurriel defense is the part of his game that must continue to evolve. Playing primarily left field, but also some first and second base Gurriel committed just 2 errors all last season. A key improvement from the 9 he made the year before, but there is still room for growth. Because of his ability to play both the outfield and infield he must work at both to become a reliable and versatile option for Blue Jays. He as an outfielder primarily needs to work on getting consistently good reads on the baseball. While putting himself in better positions to use his strong arm to gun down baserunners. He did have 9 assists last season but this number could increase with more refinement. Gurriel being the second oldest of this group will be looked to be a veteran leader this coming season. While continuing to provide the offense from any part of the order he hits from.

            Catchers Danny Jansen & Reese McGuire:

-        The Blue Jays in the catching duo of Jansen and McGuire may have found a solid tandem to roll with this season. These two combined to catch 133 games last year, Jansen catching 103 and McGuire 30. For the 24-year-old Jansen while hitting barely above .200 at .207 he showed steady growth as he got more at-bats. Plus getting 13 homers from your catcher in less than 400 at-bats, displays some intriguing power. The 25-year-old McGuire showed more with the bat hitting .299 with 5 homers and 11 rbi’s in 97 at bats. A small sample size but solid numbers to warrant an extended look this coming season. These two catchers both were solid defensively with .995 and .992 fielding percentages respectively. Jansen again got the bulk of the work, but both showed to be capable receivers. Now the key for both young catchers is to prove this coming season they can stick at the big-league level. After each got a taste of life as a big leaguer both must prove they can be the tandem the Blue Jays can rely upon going forward. That is why this position will be the most interesting position to watch this coming year for Toronto.

            Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez:

-        Teoscar Hernandez is the oldest player of this core at 27 years of age. Hernandez had a second consecutive strong power number season hitting 26 homers after hitting 22 homers the year before. Hernandez does have 30 home run power and should with more refinement in his approach become a better overall hitter. While his average dropped 9 points to .230 last year his strikeouts cut down by 10, thus improvements was seen. Hernandez as a fielder showed improvement also, but still must work on his routes to the baseball. Hernandez as a player must continue his maturation into a consistent power threat in the middle of the Blue Jays order. This while showing the ability to be trusted in the outfield every day. Hernandez has the tools to be a great power threat and must continue to set an example for the young players along the way.  

Time will only tell if all these gifted young players come together to make Toronto a consistent postseason participant for many years. This group does though have every chance to surprise many fans and pundits alike this season. With the talents and continual growth of these players into consistent everyday major leaguers or superstars the future both near and far is bright for the Toronto Blue Jays. That is why once the baseball season commences be sure to check out this exciting young Blue Jays team. A team that I believe will be in the thick of a playoff spot hunt this season.