TUSV Quick Hitters:

Guardians, Playoff Threats

By: Michael A. Chase Jr.

08-19-2022

Many fans and experts came into the 2022 MLB season looking at the AL Central and seeing it as division that would be a two-team race between the White Sox and Twins, while the Royals would finish last and the Tigers being surprise contenders. The one team that did not seem to generate much noise was the Cleveland Guardians. Yet here we are in late August, and they’re atop the AL Central and look like legit playoff contenders. TUSV is here to highlight the factors that have led to the Guardians inserting themselves into the playoff race.

The Cleveland Guardians currently sit at 63-55, putting them 1st in the AL Central and 1 game up on the Minnesota Twins. If they were to fall out of the division lead, they would currently still be the 2nd Wild Card. The factors that have led to the Guardians being in this position include the performance of their top three starting pitchers, the diverse production across their lineup, and their quality crop of bullpen arms.

The top three in their rotation have and will continue to be a main driving force for their playoff push. In Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill, the Guardians have three starters with ERAs under 3.80 who have each pitched over 134 innings. In Bieber and McKenzie’s case both have ERAs under 3.20, with Bieber at 3.18 and McKenzie at 3.14. Plus, both also are strikeout pitchers which are invaluable in the postseason – Bieber has struck out 140 batters in 138.2 innings pitched, while McKenzie has 124 strikeouts in 134.2 innings. Quantrill, while not having a vast number of strikeouts at 88 in 136 innings, has done a respectable job generating weak contact which compliments Bieber and McKenzie well to give teams a different look. Add in the fact they all have won at least 8 games – with Bieber and McKenzie at 8 and Quantrill at 9 – and you have a dependable frontline trio that can give any opponent trouble in a 5-game series.

The second factor that has enabled their success is the diversity and quality production they have gotten across their lineup. The Guardians are a middle of the pack offense ranking 16th in runs scored with 516 accumulated. The one thing they have done is put together a solid collection of young hitters that do not strikeout and can score in a variety of ways. The Indians have 8 players with at least 18 doubles, 5 players with l1 or more stolen bases, and 7 players with 5 or more home runs. While Cleveland will not outslug their opponents, they can manufacture runs and keep pressure on opposing teams while at the plate and on the bases. They rank 3rd in stolen bases in the MLB with 79, 7th in average at .253, and have totaled the fewest strikeouts in in the league at just 818. All this meaning they put the ball in play and make the defense make plays. They’re not shackled to play station-to-station baseball because they can take extras bases at an elite level. They’re led by players like All-Stars Jose Ramirez (.281, 37 doubles, 4 triples, 22 home runs, 98 RBI, 14 stolen bases) and Andres Gimenez (.310, 20 doubles, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 15 SB), who pace their offensive approach. Throw in rookie Steven Kwan (.303, 19 doubles, 4 triples, 3 HR, 31 RBI, 12 SB), and young vets Josh Naylor (.273, 18 doubles, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 3 SB, .806 OPS) and Amed Rosario (.284, 21 doubles, 7 triples, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 11 SB), and you have a collection of bats that while not intimidating power hitters, will make a pitcher work hard for each out and put on constant pressure with their high contact rate and team speed.

The final factor to discuss is the fact their bullpen has a collection of arms that are both stars and unheralded performers that have stepped up. Their bullpen of course features one of the most dominant closers in the sport in Emmanuel Clase, who sports a 1.24 ERA and has converted 27 of 29 save chances. It also features James Karinchak who has wipeout stuff, having struck out 34 batters in 18.1 innings. But they also have less-heralded arms who have provided elite production. This group includes Trevor Stephen, Sam Hentges, Enyel De Los Santos, and Nick Sandlin who all have ERAs under 3.00. With this collection and variety of bullpen options, the Guardians have the flexibility to be aggressive in games and constantly find matchups that will be in their favor. If their bullpen stays healthy and steady, they could be sneaky scary to face if they reach the postseason.

In all, the Cleveland Guardians are not a star-studded roster, but they have found a multitude of ways to compete in a competitive American League. From great front-line starters to a flexible and diverse offensive approach, to a solid group in their bullpen, the Guardians have pieces in place to make a legit push for a postseason spot. There are still many games to be played and races to be decided. But one thing is for certain – Cleveland will be a factor down the stretch.