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Mystics Playoff Chances

By: Michael A. Chase Jr.

08-11-2022

The WNBA season is less than a week away from its conclusion and the playoff picture continues to come into focus. The Washington Mystics have secured a playoff spot and are now preparing for what they hope will be a deep postseason run. The Mystics have their strengths that set them up for success but do have some drawbacks that must be tended to before the playoffs begin August 17th. Today we discuss the main points of contention that will contribute to whether the Mystics can make another WNBA Finals run.

The Washington Mystics currently sit at 20-14 on the season, with a 9-7 conference record and having gone 6-4 over their last 10. They secured their spot in the postseason by being one of the best defensive teams in the league, but still need improvement on the offensive end.

The Mystics rank 1st in the league in points allowed at 75.8 points per game, which is 2 points better than both the Seattle Storm and Connecticut Sun. They also rank 2nd in opponent field goal percentage at 42.7% behind only the New York Liberty, as well as ranking 3rd in opponent three-point percentage at 33.6%, behind only Seattle and Connecticut. They have held opponents to under 75 points in 16 out of their 34 games played thus far. This includes nine games where they held their opponents under 70 points in the game.

This level of defense will make them a tough matchup for whoever they face in an eventual postseason series. They will need to continue to be aggressive and disruptive against primary ball-handlers. They will also need to remain solid on the boards ranking 5th in the league in rebounding at 35.1, while allowing the fewest offensive rebounds a night at 6.9 offensive rebounds per game. Being strong on the boards coupled with their interior defense will help them deal with teams that have larger front lines and make life difficult around the rim. Plus, the fact they have four players averaging at least a steal per game speaks to their active hands and anticipation.

As for their offense, they will need to shore up this end of the floor to have a long playoff shelf life. They rank near the bottom half of the league in scoring, ranking 8th at 79.7 per game. Plus, the fact they have scored fewer than 73 points in eight of their games means they’ve had nights where they have truly struggled to score at a frightening level. They also sit 7th in field goal percentage at 43.7% and 8th in three-point percentage at 34.1%, meaning they are again near the bottom half of the league in these categories. They will have to find a way to generate easier buckets by adding a bit more ball movement to their play. The good thing is that they are 4th in the league in fewest turnovers per game, so they don’t give away many possessions. They also get production across the roster, having six players averaging 8 or more points a game, highlighting their depth. Some of their offensive inconsistencies can be attributed to health concerns of key players like Elena Delle Donne and Alysha Clark. At the end of the day, they will need to up their offensive efficiency to have a real shot to make a deep postseason run.

Finally, the Mystics have a few key players that will be crucial to their postseason run. You obviously start with the having a healthy Elena Delle Donne (16.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 47.7% field goal percentage, 92.2% free throw percentage), who starred when the Mystics made their 2019 championship run. Add in guards Natasha Cloud (10.9 ppg, 7.3 apg, 1.1 spg) and Ariel Atkins (14.8 ppg, 1.2 spg, 37% three-point percentage, 2.3 apg) and you have the core of that championship group hopefully healthy and ready to lead. The two main X-factors for Washington this postseason will be young bigs Myisha Hines-Allen (8.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Shakira Austin (8.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 0.8 bpg). Both bring a presence in the paint on both ends of the floor and will be key to helping Washington matchup against bigger teams like Seattle, Connecticut, and Las Vegas. They will need to add that secondary scoring punch, while providing rim protection the Mystics need.

Overall, at full strength approaching the final week of the regular season, the Mystics have all the tools to be a playoff threat. They will need players like Delle Donne to play like the stars they are, while improving their offensive output to match their top-tier defense. If the Washington can hit their stride going into these 2022 playoffs, they can make a real run at the title.