The Most Unpredictable Championship:

MLB World Series

By: Michael A. Chase Jr.

11/30/2021

         Of any postseason in professional sports, I believe the MLB Postseason is the hardest playoffs to predict. As after watching the Atlanta Braves win the 2021 World Series, it made me think about how unpredictable the result of the World Series can be. This makes it one of the more intriguing sport watching experiences in the country. This piece will analyze the parity of the MLB World Series from the last 10 years. Discussing all the variables that contribute the unpredictability of the results of this Fall Classic.

            With the Atlanta Braves becoming the 2021 World Series Champs that makes it 8 different teams to win the World Series the last 10 years. With the Boston Red Sox’s (2013, 2018) and San Francisco Giants (2012, 2014) being the two teams that have won multiple championship from 2011-2021. Meaning it is hard to have a dynasty in this era of the MLB, and it is difficult to win multiple championships over even a 10-year span.

            For fans World Series winners each year would be expected to be a team with 100 plus wins. As fate would have this is not the case as of the past 10 World Series Champs only 3 teams have won 100 or more games. These teams being the 2016 Chicago Cubs, 2017 Houston Astros, and 2018 Boston Red Sox’s. Of the other 8 winners 3 of the teams won less than 90 games, being the 2021 Braves at 88, the 2014 Giants at 88, and the 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers at 43 in the COVID shortened season. In total, the average number of wins for the last 10 world series winners is between 90-91 wins. Meaning just because teams win over 100 games in the regular season that by no means guarantees them a World Series.

            The numbers also prove it pays off to win your division. As 8 of the last 11 World Series champions won their division. By winning your division teams get homefield advantage in postseason series and in some cases the easier road to a championship. The teams that were wild card winners who won the last 11 years were the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals, the 2014 Giants, and the 2019 Washington Nationals. So while winning the division is quite beneficial to your postseason journey, it is far from impossible to make a run as a Wild Card team also.

            The final topic to discuss in terms of the parity of the MLB World Series is the length of series. This being that only the 2012 World Series between the San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers ended in a sweep. Showcasing that it’s likely a team will win at least won game in the Fall Classic upon qualifying despite the matchup. To this point two of the remaining ten series went five games, three series took at least six, and five of these series went the full seven games, including 3 of the last 6. We have even had historic phenomena occur during some of these series to reach those points. From the 3-1 comeback by the Cubs in 2016, the back-and-forth 2011 classic between the Cardinals and Texas Rangers, or even the no home team is allowed to win series between the Nats and Astros in 2019.

            Al these numbers and scenarios add up to the fact the MLB playoffs are unpredictable. While favorites establish themselves during the season the playoff resets it all and anything and everything can happen. Meaning if you take the time to watch the 2022 World Series next season you will be treated likely to a long series, with possibly opponents the majority may not have expected. That for one thing is what makes playoff baseball great to follow.